If you read “Master Sun’s Military Methods”, you will immediately know why the US were defeated in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq etc., although the book was written 2,500 years ago. One of Sun Zi’s core precepts is the avoidance of attrition warfare, if not any direct engagement with the enemy whatsoever. Master Sun’s treatise is timeless, yet I sometimes defy this insight, and in an uphill battle against the toughest of enemies.
“If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
— sᴛᴀʀᴛᴜᴘ ᴅᴀᴇᴍᴏɴ (@startupdaemon) February 27, 2018
Attrition warfare against a powerful adversary is a gruesome affair. Therefore, I must begin with a word of caution. This is not at all advisable even if you have decades of experience in power tangling publicly or covertly. If you have little practice in the game of power or you are in a vastly inferior position, Master Sun’s original work is to be followed to the letter. Winning an attrition engagement with a strong enemy – and without meeting Pyrrhus’s fate – is a very intricate endeavor that requires immense attention to detail, flexibility, situational awareness and intuitive grasp of how to act from moment to moment.
To facilitate understanding, I have divided the process into phases, but they usually overlap, so don’t take this as a step-by-step “attrition for dummies”. You can never account for all the twists and complications. This is NOT something dummies and novices should attempt without a powerful ally to bail them out when they mess it up, as they inevitably will. I myself have done it only a few times (although never regretted it), and have no intention of doing it again unless absolutely necessary. To help both you and me internalize the abstractness of this missive and achieve more clarity, I refer to the practiced strategist as the Artist and to the enemy as the Opponent.
Phase I: Observation
As Master Sun stated, deep knowledge of oneself and the enemy is the unshakeable and irreplaceable foundation of the master strategist’s inevitable victory. Every well-staged power play begins in paying close attention to the Opponent, the battlefield and one’s goals and capabilities in that context.
In general, being attentive to other players has many benefits. It is foundational. In the special circumstances of escalating to a conflict of attrition, however, it has two critical goals – more critical than in any other situation. The first objective is very similar to Master Sun’s premise, only more forceful – to ensure overwhelming advantage to win the conflict and especially the ability to take damage publicly. The second is to formulate a firm decision/determination that the fight is Right Action – that the Opponent should indeed be “vanquished at great cost” (rather than avoided, defeated with guerilla warfare etc.) because this is exactly what well-conducted attrition warfare is about.
I have never undertaken attrition conflict because someone was opposing my goals directly. In the typical case, the conflict was forced on me indirectly by someone who was adding “white noise” in my space of operation or undermining team goals through incompetence, rather than seeking to undermine me personally. The nuisant Opponent could not be removed from the situation easily and inflicted escalating damage, albeit inadvertently. Rather than seek to regain control by indirect methods such as passive aggressiveness, in each case I chose to find a permanent resolution that would also “clear the air” for the team as a whole. One objective of the resolution was always to ensure the elimination or lasting submission of the Opponent.
After accepting the inevitability and necessity of attrition, I would map out a branching tree of possible paths forward as well as an inventory of the resources I had at my disposal. I would compare these to the possible requirements of the attrition conflict. In the modern world, the typical resources required consist of ample time, patience and mental fortitude to endure a long-lasting entanglement in public. One must also consider possible effects on income streams and general ability to advance career and business goals or whatever other pursuits are central to one’s life and related to the coming battle.
Phase II: Preparation
A well-executed attrition conflict must meet all the following criteria:
- The Artist’s victory is guaranteed before open engagement commences.
- The Opponent is unable to escape once his impending defeat becomes apparent.
- The Opponent lands powerful blows onto the Artist, and publicly.
- The Opponent is crushed into submission or oblivion, and publicly.
- The Artist exits the conflict with much of his strength intact or easy to recover (not vulnerable to Black Swan attacks).
The first and last of these objectives are core premises of Sun Zi’s treatise to be applied to any conflict. The Artist must know that whatever the Opponent does and whatever circumstance intercedes, there are multiple paths to victory and no unavoidable paths to defeat. This knowledge must be both practical – knowing oneself and the Opponent in excruciating detail – and intuitive, based on experience and personal antifragility. Equally, the Artist must be certain that in the aftermath of the conflict s/he won’t face a challenger or a coalition of weaker adversaries while the Artist’s strength is diminished.
The middle three goals comprise the core of the attrition strategy, and run contrary to much of Master Sun’s teaching. The goal of classic encirclement is to erode the morale of the Opponent and cause him to collapse; it is sudden and occurs just before victory. In attrition, encirclement is early, gradual and overt, with the express purpose of the Opponent being allowed to take a strong position. The Opponent is set up to fight to the death, rather than collapse, guaranteeing that he can inflict serious damage on the assaulting Artist. Finally, the Opponent is ground into nothing rather than asked to surrender, contrary to what would be the optimal approach for any classical strategist.
As Sun Zi states, the most important resource of the Artist is the strength of his own force, the resilience and commitment of his men. In a modern context, this refers to one’s own skills and psychological mettle to endure and progress in a protracted engagement. Decision and determination must be established and tested before public hostilities commence. The Artist must be sure that he will persevere to victory whatever it takes. This includes considering and experiencing mentally a lot of the possible setbacks and damage from the Opponent during the engagement.
A critical detail in the attrition context is the assembling of allies to protect the Artist from third-party interference while engaged with the Opponent. In the ideal case, the Artist must also ensure that allies do not come to his aid as he attacks the Opponent; any ally who cannot be trusted to refrain from intervening must be neutralized.
Take as an example a corporate environment where you are working on a project with a team of coworkers. Your supervisors have appointed someone else as project manager, but he has really bad ideas, which you know will torpedo the effort, undermining your own career goals. You can’t get rid of the PM because he’s the only one considered “qualified” and if he’s removed the project will most likely be abandoned. You have to attrition him out of the spot or informally take control of decision making to lead the team to success.
In this case, the preparation phase might take the form of ascertaining the support of superiors and other team members (for you personally), carving out extra work time for the duration of the actual engagement and making sure that the Opponent – the project manager – is fully and publicly invested in his toxic views. You must also make your own opposing views known publicly and repeatedly, so that they are remembered, and eliminate any alternatives other than your own (encirclement). This must take the form of challenging the feasibility of the plan rather than personal attacks on the competences of the Opponent. Yet, you must do your job at your very best, following the plan of the Opponent – earnestly and in every way you can, including with overtime. This ensures you’re not blamed for the collapse of the venture and further entrenches the PM by engaging more organizational resources behind him (entrenchment).
“Every battle is won before it is fought.”
— sᴛᴀʀᴛᴜᴘ ᴅᴀᴇᴍᴏɴ (@startupdaemon) February 27, 2018
Phase III: Engagement
The Artist’s attack only commences after the Opponent is fully entrenched and encircled. In the corporate example, the Artist would go full-tilt against the Opponent’s leadership only after the project has become so bogged down that it is obvious to everyone, including management. Combat must always be open, no passive aggression or subversion. For example, you may be asked to compile a progress report, so you make it facts-only – but stinging facts – rather than producing an opinion piece or marketing message. That makes for a great opening of hostilities. You ask the PM to sign off on the report you prepared. If he approves it, a deluge of embarrassing facts are handed over to supervisors. If he demands edits, you get another chance to voice your disagreement with the Opponent. It’s a win-win.
Phase IV: Attrition
You seek direct engagement at every opportunity: every private conversation with the Opponent, every team meeting, every public presentation. This can take the form of uncomfortable questions and facts presented dispassionately, exposing the futility of the Opponent’s solutions and decisions, highlighting flaws in execution etc. The goal is not to subvert or antagonize the Opponent, but to exhaust him, while subjecting your own views to his attacks, preferably in public. It would be particularly advantageous to be seen withstanding the Opponent’s verbal abuse in front of your mutual supervisors, so that maximum potential embarrassment is inflicted on you and your views are pummeled as hard as possible.
To anyone who has been involved in protracted public conflict, it must be obvious that this process would be extremely taxing on the Artist. Every damaging report must be prepared with meticulous fact-checking and attention to detail, every confrontation must be endured with equanimity and dispassion, every opportunity to pick a fight with the Opponent must be taken – no exceptions. This is why physical stamina, psychological mettle and fearlessness are the most important asset in entering attrition conflict, as Sun Zi would say about any adversarial engagement.
Phase V: Victory
If you have assessed the situation thoroughly at the preparation stage and executed well, time will be on your side. The Opponent will steadily be overwhelmed by your relentless attacks and the adverse circumstances that are the failing project. He will become increasingly emotional and reactive, making even more mistakes in the process. Ultimately, anger and fighting back will be replaced by implicit acceptance of his defeat. He could ask you to take on more responsibility or even manage the team under his supervision. It is best if the Opponent begs for your help in a meeting or other public setting. You refuse any compromise with appropriate justification. However, you privately prepare to take over and coordinate with allies, so that when senior management demands a change of course you have a strategy that can get going immediately. When presenting it, you ask to take over project management (you decide whether to discard the crushed enemy or retain him as a subordinate on the basis of his competences).
Le corp de mon ennemi https://t.co/hweegnqPB8
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 4, 2018
Why Attrition and Not Subversion?
Attrition warfare is public, harsh and costly. It takes extreme care not to antagonize allies or expose yourself to third parties. And all these problems are what makes it a sublime form. In a single engagement, you are transforming yourself and the world around you, not just solving for an intractable Opponent. In your grand strategy, the Opponent is at best a tool for reaching greater goods.
The encirclement of the Opponent guarantees that the resolution is final and the issue at stake need not be revisited. Keeping everything transparent and factual establishes your credentials for fearlessness, expertise and intolerance for bullshit. The Artist’s exposure to public beatings by the Opponent shows his ruthless determination and his unwavering conviction and stamina as a fighter.
Courage is the only virtue you can’t fake.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 1, 2017
Successful attrition combat fundamentally changes the atmosphere around the Artist. His allies and followers are inspired by his courage and ability. His example in expending resources and taking damage shows others that they too can build similar capability and take risks to improve their and their community’s wellbeing.
Nassim Taleb is a singular example of the virtu of attrition warfare. He fights most relentlessly and on multiple fronts. He publishes books, papers and missives on a variety of subjects, taking on establishment scientistic bullshit, rekking credentialed and tenured academics with six-figure salaries and “Nobel” prizes; political figures; media personalities and just about anyone who falls in his field of erudition. This is bound to be extremely time-consuming, mentally taxing and costing millions of dollars in potential speaking fees from scientistic and corporatist conferences. But no, thanks. I shall impale you instead.
